September 2010 Forecast/Discussion

Discussion:Weak-Moderate La Nina will bring a classic Nina pattern this month as I see no major pattern differences, also because of the very warm east over the summer. The Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and Southern New England will have Above average temps and Below average precip due to a SE Ridge, the SW also looks this way. The Rockies, Southern and Central Plains, Ohio Valley, Southern Great Lakes area, Western Northeast, Central New England, and Southern New England look about average in terms of temps and precip, although it could go either slightly above average/below average in Temps/Precip though, but this area should have closer to ''Normal'' departures. The Northwest, Upper Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes looks to have Below average temps and Above average precip due to a strong PV and a moisture flow through the Northern US/Southern Canada;I think there are potentials for Frost/Freezes and maybe even some flurries/light snow events in the later part of the month, especially in the most northern areas and high altitude areas. For Hurricane activity, it will be a little more likely than last month, since were getting right into the middle of Hurricane Season.

Factors for this month

Near neutral NAO/AO

+EPO

-PNA

Rising/+QBO

What could go wrong?

1. SE ridge doesnt develop and we get a further south storm track and allows the PV to go further south, allowing for colder temperatures and more precip in the SE/MA.

2. The Pacific gets so ugly that over 1/2 of the country torches, aka a 1998-1999/1999-2000, it is possible with a Decent La Nina/+QBO/+EPO pattern, I doubt it, but we'll see.

Confidence:7/10

Comments and Suggestions are Appreciated:)